Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Performance assessment system of health,safety and environment based on experts' weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Performance evaluation of Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) is the measurement of a company's achievement in HSE management. In order to receive a comprehensive and objective evaluation result, it is necessary to consider all evaluation factors and experts at different levels when HSE performance assessment is conducted. To improve conventional HSE performance evaluation, where weighted average method was used, a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) method is used in this study by taking experts' weights into account. Further, an HSE operating performance assessment system is designed to simplify manual and complex assessment process and generate charts and analysis reports automatically. Finally, a case of petrochemical enterprise is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the method and system.     

企业安全管理体系标准模式的比较研究

采用对比分析法和实证分析法,对当前国内外流行的企业安全管理体系标准模式及其评价方法进行比较研究,旨在把握诸多标准模式的原则、路径、结构、方法和共性特征及其可以发挥的具体优点,将研究的标准模式的评价方法归纳为两大类即体系认证审核法和综合考评打分法,并对两类评价方法的优缺点进行剖析。体系认证审核法的优点是过程方法、符合性及抽样,考评打分法则提供了安全绩效准则。对吸收融合两类评价方法的优点形成综合性评价方法的途径和方式进行了探讨,为企业建立有效、适用的安全管理体系提供了依据。     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

Soil erosion and non-point source pollution impacts assessment with the aid of multi-temporal remote sensing images

Soil erosion associated with non-point source pollution is viewed as a process of land degradation in many terrestrial environments. Careful monitoring and assessment of land use variations with different temporal and spatial scales would reveal a fluctuating interface, punctuated by changes in rainfall and runoff, movement of people, perturbation from environmental disasters, and shifts in agricultural activities and cropping patterns. The use of multi-temporal remote sensing images in support of environmental modeling analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) environment leading to identification of a variety of long-term interactions between land, resources, and the built environment has been a highly promising approach in recent years. This paper started with a series of supervised land use classifications, using SPOT satellite imagery as a means, in the Kao-Ping River Basin, South Taiwan. Then, it was designed to differentiate the variations of eight land use patterns in the past decade, including orchard, farmland, sugarcane field, forest, grassland, barren, community, and water body. Final accuracy was confirmed based on interpretation of available aerial photographs and global positioning system (GPS) measurements. Finally, a numerical simulation model (General Watershed Loading Function, GWLF) was used to relate soil erosion to non-point source pollution impacts in the coupled land and river water systems. Research findings indicate that while the decadal increase in orchards poses a significant threat to water quality, the continual decrease in forested land exhibits a potential impact on water quality management. Non-point source pollution, contributing to part of the downstream water quality deterioration of the Kao-Ping River system in the last decade, has resulted in an irreversible impact on land integrity from a long-term perspective.     

中国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价体系和实证分析

我国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价指标体系包括四个层次和三级子系统，内容涉及养老保险人数、机构设置、基金管理和代际平衡四个子目标。应用因子分析模糊综合评价方法对我国1990-2001年养老保险建设状况进行评价，本文认为基金管理，行政管理和代际失衡是影响我国可持续养老保险发展的主要因素。